Market Update October 16, 2024
So much for pre-election jitters. Stocks historically experience some volatility in the lead-up to elections as market participants don’t like uncertainty. Despite the election being less than three weeks away and the outcome anything but certain, the major stock indexes are continuing to register new all-time highs.
This begs the question, why? Investors are optimistic that the Federal Reserve has accomplished the rare soft landing for the economy following a vicious cycle of interest rate hikes. On September 28th, the Fed lowered the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) on the belief that inflation will continue to ease to their 2% objective and that the labor market will remain stable. The Fed & financial markets are expecting additional 25 basis point cuts will follow at future Fed meetings with the next being in early November after the election. I believe these expectations for a series of rate cuts through next year are unlikely to be fulfilled. Since the Fed’s last meeting, reports on the labor market and inflation have both come in stronger than expected, putting the need for future rate cuts in doubt. Frankly, it would be best if the Fed did not need to drop rates significantly over the next year, as significant cuts are usually indicative of a rapidly slowing economy. Stocks historically have done very well following the first rate cut, provided they aren’t followed by a recession.
Many market strategists who focus on the bond markets have voiced their opinion that investors should be increasing duration in the bond part of their portfolios, meaning essentially shifting from short-term bonds to intermediate bonds. This recommendation is driven in part by the expectation of a series of interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, bond yields don’t necessarily follow the path of the Fed. Very short-term bond yields would be heavily influenced by the Fed’s actions, but longer-term yields not so much. Case in point, the day before the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond closed at 3.64%. Today the yield on this bond closed at 4.01% -- 37 bps higher than it was before the Fed’s cut. With longer-term bonds having greater interest rate risk than shorter-term bonds due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, and longer-term bonds not offering a materially higher yield to compensate for their risk, I still favor short-term bonds in client portfolios. I believe better opportunities will arise in more traditional intermediate-term bonds.
If there is a downside to the strong year in stocks, it is that investor optimism has hit excessive levels. This is a contrarian indicator. As Warren Buffet said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Also, stock valuations are very high for the cap-weighted S&P 500. While valuations have no bearing on the near-term direction for stocks, they do weigh on future returns. Thankfully, there are other areas of the stock market that I believe offer better value and future return potential.
A number of clients have expressed concern over the years about our country’s ballooning debt burden. I share their concern. However, at this time there is no indication from the financial markets that it has hit a troublesome level. The US Dollar remains strong as are Treasury bonds, as evidenced by their still-low yields versus their historical average. It is something I will continue to monitor and weigh into investment strategy.
The third quarter was a great quarter for a variety of investments. Large cap domestic stocks as measured by the S&P 500 were up 5.9%. Established foreign market stocks as measured by the MSCI EAFE index were up 7.3%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index was up 8.7%. In a turn of events from the first half of the year, value stocks outperformed growth. Not to be left out, bonds as measured by Bloomberg US Aggregate index were up 5.2%. It was a great quarter indeed.
Please reach out to me if you have any questions or if I can be of assistance.
Sincerely,
Glenn S. Rank, CIMA®
Certified Investment Management Analyst®
President
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· The S&P 500 is an unmanaged capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks that’s generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE index and the MSCI Emerging Markets index are unmanaged indexes compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International that are generally considered representative of the developed international stock market and emerging international stock market, respectively. International securities involve additional risks including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility, and may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond index is a broad base, market capitalization-weighted bond market index representing intermediate term investment grade bonds traded in the U.S. Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. Note that bond prices rise when yields fall, and vice versa, due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary.
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